Many St. Louis Cardinals fans fell in absolute love with Joe Kelly in 2013.
Some of that love was born from Kelly’s free-loving attitude. He is an absolute goofball and his antics have been captured in numerous photo bombs, some clips on Fox Sports Midwest and in his recent interview with VivaElBirdos.com this spring.
But most of the love for Kelly comes from the way he stepped into the Cardinals rotation in 2013 thanks to a bevy of injuries and became the stopper in the rotation during the second half of the season and helped lead St. Louis back to the World Series for the second time in three seasons.
In 12 starts after the All-star break in 2013, Kelly posted an impressive 9-2 record with a 1.91 ERA and allowed opponents to hit just .253.
The second half of 2013 was simply stellar for Joe Kelly.
But 2014 looks to be starting in a similar fashion as 2013 for Kelly, who looks to be the odd-man out of the Cardinals rotation for the second spring in row, which means Kelly will likely be pitching out of the bullpen, a place he struggled in 2013.
Many assume that Kelly will eventually reclaim a starting role, but there are several reasons to believe that even if he does, there is a high likelihood that Kelly will underachieve in 2014, especially when you compare it to his success in 2013.
1. Kelly does not pitch deep enough into games.
Kelly only pitched seven innings or more once in 15 starts in 2013. Compare that to Lance Lynn, an incumbant in the Cardinals rotation who many of the faithful think Kelly should replace, who went seven innings or more on 12 ocassions in 33 starts.
With the number of young pitchers the Cardinals have in place, it is important for somebody to eat a bunch of innings and pitch deep into games regularly and up to this point in his career, Kelly has not been able to prove that he can do so at the MLB-level.
2. Kelly’s inability to record strikeouts will eventually catch up to him.
Kelly throws in the mid-to-upper nineties on a regular basis with his fastball. During the post-season last fall, he regularly was ringing the radar gun at 98 mph.
But for some reason, Kelly simply does not strike anybody out.
Kelly’s 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings is much lower than desired and his 1.80 strikeout to walk ratio is well below what you want to see too.
3. Repeating 2013′s succcess will not be easy for Kelly.
Kelly had as good a season in 2013 as any of the other young hurlers in a Cardinals uniform, but he is much less talented then Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez.
Unfortunately when it comes to expectations, some fans put Kelly in the same breath as some of these other names and is often times wrong compared to his good buddy Miller, who has a much bigger upside.
Kelly’s breakout 2013 has put him on a pedestal in the eyes of many fans, but the reality is that Kelly is much more likely to post a 11-11 record with a 4.20 ERA and 1.35 WHIP then repeating the success of last season, and that would be assuming he was a full-time starter, which he will not be in 2014.
Kelly is one hell of an asset and backup plan should any of the Cardinals starters falter. But when thrusted into that tough situation of replacing a starter and changing roles, fans may expect too much of Kelly.
Some of that love was born from Kelly’s free-loving attitude. He is an absolute goofball and his antics have been captured in numerous photo bombs, some clips on Fox Sports Midwest and in his recent interview with VivaElBirdos.com this spring.
But most of the love for Kelly comes from the way he stepped into the Cardinals rotation in 2013 thanks to a bevy of injuries and became the stopper in the rotation during the second half of the season and helped lead St. Louis back to the World Series for the second time in three seasons.
In 12 starts after the All-star break in 2013, Kelly posted an impressive 9-2 record with a 1.91 ERA and allowed opponents to hit just .253.
The second half of 2013 was simply stellar for Joe Kelly.
But 2014 looks to be starting in a similar fashion as 2013 for Kelly, who looks to be the odd-man out of the Cardinals rotation for the second spring in row, which means Kelly will likely be pitching out of the bullpen, a place he struggled in 2013.
Many assume that Kelly will eventually reclaim a starting role, but there are several reasons to believe that even if he does, there is a high likelihood that Kelly will underachieve in 2014, especially when you compare it to his success in 2013.
1. Kelly does not pitch deep enough into games.
Kelly only pitched seven innings or more once in 15 starts in 2013. Compare that to Lance Lynn, an incumbant in the Cardinals rotation who many of the faithful think Kelly should replace, who went seven innings or more on 12 ocassions in 33 starts.
With the number of young pitchers the Cardinals have in place, it is important for somebody to eat a bunch of innings and pitch deep into games regularly and up to this point in his career, Kelly has not been able to prove that he can do so at the MLB-level.
2. Kelly’s inability to record strikeouts will eventually catch up to him.
Kelly throws in the mid-to-upper nineties on a regular basis with his fastball. During the post-season last fall, he regularly was ringing the radar gun at 98 mph.
But for some reason, Kelly simply does not strike anybody out.
Kelly’s 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings is much lower than desired and his 1.80 strikeout to walk ratio is well below what you want to see too.
3. Repeating 2013′s succcess will not be easy for Kelly.
Kelly had as good a season in 2013 as any of the other young hurlers in a Cardinals uniform, but he is much less talented then Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez.
Unfortunately when it comes to expectations, some fans put Kelly in the same breath as some of these other names and is often times wrong compared to his good buddy Miller, who has a much bigger upside.
Kelly’s breakout 2013 has put him on a pedestal in the eyes of many fans, but the reality is that Kelly is much more likely to post a 11-11 record with a 4.20 ERA and 1.35 WHIP then repeating the success of last season, and that would be assuming he was a full-time starter, which he will not be in 2014.
Kelly is one hell of an asset and backup plan should any of the Cardinals starters falter. But when thrusted into that tough situation of replacing a starter and changing roles, fans may expect too much of Kelly.